os Tversky. There are some examples given of how knowing the underlying probability or base rate of an... 't happen) & $1$ or $100\%$ (certain to happen). Another way of expressing such probabilities is the o... . Odds reflect the ratio of an event occurring or not
$$Occurance: Non\mbox{-}Occurance$$
where the event will be clearly decided, i.e. one of the opti
===
~~META:
date created = 2016-12-02
~~
If technological advance is not an absolute good and it is instead precisely technological advance (Nuclear weapons, AI or some other... ring an end to this? Kaczynski would say there is nothing that can halt this advance in our current sy
one must be a coauthor of a research paper with another person who has a finite Erdős number. Paul Er... . The people who have collaborated with them (but not with Erdős himself) have an Erdős number of 2 (9... ed with people who have an Erdős number of 2 (but not with Erdős or anyone with an Erdős number of 1) ... an Erdős number of 3, and so forth. A person with no such coauthorship chain connecting to Erdős has a
====== Technology, AI & Distribution of Capital ======
~~META:
date created = 2016-11-20
~~
Recent t... ) as well as other articles that question if technological advance is a positive force that can be co... xtreme from as expressed by Ted Kaczynski(better known as the Unabomber) there is still a logic to at least some of his thinking with respect to technological progress that is hard to ignore even thoug
ern, functional society in peacetime, it is still not a trivial thing to get this converted into goods... ty, where all services and systems are running as normal, this is still not trivial. How would this look like in some type of post apocalyptic world where nothing is running or working? How many willing take
cept the current status quo as eternal. Change is not something that is intuitively easy to grasp. It ... le despite millennia of history to the contrary. No state structure lasts forever, no matter how big or how powerful it becomes. On an even shorter timef... away. This is sometimes for good - but with many notable examples where this was catastrophic.
It is
====== How I now do my reading - Instapaper & Kindle ======
~~META:
date created = 2016-11-21
~~
** 21 Nov 2016 - dob **
I have started using [[http://www... structured and thought through. There is surely enough noise in the world already without adding more through twitter & other social media feeds. Reading
====== Collecting My Notes as a Blog ======
Gathering my notes into a blog type structure following [[https://www.dokuwiki.o... at, but yeah…Looks interesting how it gathers the notes together.
In the sea of data that is availab... hat there is much that can appear online that has not already been said. Maybe we are already living i
I have to admit that my world view recently does not seem to match what is actually happening and I w... events came to pass, as they have done, was also not correct. For example, electing a guy who espouse... to all new highs after his election. Reality does not match up with my world picture. I am not sure why, but at least that much appears to be true.
=====
priced in US dollars from a minimum of 0,84\$ in Nov 2000 up to 1.6\$ July 2008. At the time of writi... he SP500 is, however, priced in \$ and as such is nominally doing perfectly well in 2017. No major alarm about a stalling US stock market. The 10% depreciation of the $ in € terms is also notable absent from headlines.
Gyrations of the GB
ears due to the huge potential. These desires are not limited to any one demographic group.
====== ======
You could argue that the market economy is merely responding to a need in the market an... /should in fact cost less. Packaging your rice in non branded/unprinted hemp sacks appears however to ... es somebody else just sell simpler for less. I am not sure. I am guessing there is a branding associat
[wp>Amos Tversky]] and [[wp>Daniel Kahneman]]. Economics nobel prize winner Kahneman's //"Thinking Fast and Slow"// has been a long time on my [[dob:read#... ining books and giving insight into areas that do not usually provide the best material for an easy re... ee how this foray into the world of behavioral economics takes him.
Here is an interview of Lewis dis
nsia/508886/|Traces of time lost]], THe Atlantic, Nov 2016)) about formation of memories in childhood ... which our two younger companions will presumably not remember - at least not like this. But then again, neither will I without the benefit of the picture
ed from "Pennsylvania Assembly: Reply to the Governor", November 11, 1755; as cited in The Papers of Benjamin Franklin, vol. 6, p. 242, Leonard W. Labaree... ty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety"]]))
~~DISCUSSION~~
